Costs
There is a good comparison with the Borders railway in Scotland, (see our report on this web site) which was built between 2012 and 2015. It is about 30 miles long and cost about £350m, including all associated costs. Therefore, if you divide 30 into £350 m you get the 2015 cost on a per mile basis. About £11.67 m per mile. Then you must inflate that cost from 2015 to today. Total inflation in UK capital and construction costs from 2015 to 2026 is approximately 56.25%, as measured by the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index (reflected in the RICS CIL index rising from 256 in 2015 to 400 for 2026. Thus the present day cost would be £11.67 m x 1.56 you would have what the modern-day cost is of the line between Lewes and Uckfield. £18.20 m per mile. Say 136.5 mile for a single track line. By comparison a single carriageway road could cost approximately £25 million per mile making total of over £185 m. And that’s without bridges!! Road bridge are expensive. For instance the East Sussex County Council are spending over £21 m on one bridge at Exceat on the A259 in the Seven Sisters County Park
The Border railway has three double-track sections placed strategically along the route to keep services running smoothly in both directions which would not be needed in Sussex. Also the Borders Railway has seven stations which again would not be needed. The Borders Railway required rebuilding of a number of bridges which is what would be required in the case here in Sussex.
This assumes no electrification. However, there may be some increasing cost for signalling and for level crossings if bridges are not built. At the Uckfield end there may be an significant extra cost to construct a bridge and associated works to avoid using a level crossing.
Is PFI the way forward for the restoration of the Lewes to Uckfield railway line?
A report by Victor S Ient (he is the organiser of Lewes Rail https://lewesrail.org.uk/ who are campaigning for the reopening of the line).
It seems that the Department of Transport officials are considering how PFI would resolve the problem of completing HS2 at London’s Euston Station. See the article published by The Sunday Times this weekend (Oct 19th), under the heading, “Broke Britain’s road and rail need fixing, so PFI to the rescue.” See: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-times_broke-britains-roads-and-rail-need-fixing-activity-7253842963645042688-ATWf/ The article goes on to talk about how PFI could be used to help fund other road and rail infrastructure. In 2018, the Conservative government decided to abolish PFIs. However, in my opinion, PFI could be a way forward for funding other rail infrastructure such as the Lewes to Uckfield Rail Link.
Transport for the South East (TfSE), the shadow regional transport body, already have the rail link in their Strategic Investment Plan. They say:
“3.1. London – Sussex Coast Rail
This package addresses key bottlenecks on the Brighton Main Line, enabling faster, more reliable services and increases in decarbonised capacity across rail operations in the region.
Additionally, there are aspirations to reinstate the railways between Uckfield – Lewes and, potentially, Tunbridge Wells West – Tunbridge Wells to increase resilience of rail connectivity between the South Coast and London whilst creating a new east – west passenger rail service. These results should give investors confidence in the level of growth that could be realised through investing in the Brighton Main Line corridor.
This package could deliver a very significant 20% increase in rail patronage compared to “business as usual” forecasts. At least 20,000 fewer car trips each weekday and more than 85,000 additional trips by rail each weekday.”
Additionally, TfSE says “This package addresses key bottlenecks on the Brighton Main Line, enabling faster, more reliable services and increases in decarbonised capacity across rail operations in the region.”
In 2019 I wrote to the then Secretary of State for Transport commenting on the constant rail closures on the Brighton Main Line, resulting in rail replacement bus services operating from Lewes to Three Bridges, saying “If the Lewes to Uckfield line hadn’t been closed in 1968 there would be an alternative route to London, but government policy is to put ‘all eggs in one basket’ and route all trains up the crowded Brighton Mmain Line!
TfSE also supports the Hurst Green to Uckfield Electrification.
Despite the negative approach by East Sussex County Council, who only currently provide tacit support for the line, they say the subject of restoration of this link “continues to be of interest”. The Sussex Byline publication on September 9th, received over 15,000 hits shortly after its publication. See: https://sussexbylines.co.uk/community/history/could-the-lewes-to-uckfield-railway-line-reopen/ This demonstrates there is a large amount of public interest in the link. Recently on BBC Politics South East, both Mims Davies the Conservative MP for East Grinstead and Uckfield, and James MacCleary the Liberal Democrat MP for Lewes, said they supported the reopening of the link. Even more recently, the Sussex Express had a double page spread on the history and possibilities for the future of the link in their October 18th edition.
With the reopening of 7 miles of track and the reconnection of an existing track to the main line near Eridge, linking to Tunbridge Wells, we could be looking at a rail service which serves a population of over 750,000 people. …….and that’s without the wider commuter and tourist traffic that will be able to use the line!
TfSE say the next stage is a Feasibility Study. Let’s get on with that! Investors consider their investment strategies!